Scenario: CHEAP ENERGY

December 19, 2014

in Positive Events

For whatever reason, energy becomes very cheap compared to recent years. We can anticipate solar energy driving prices down someday soon, but it’s hard to tell exactly when. The recent glut on the petroleum markets caused by the fracking revolution has dropped the price of oil dramatically, but for how long? Will the Keystone Pipeline be built and what impact will it have with either LOW or HIGH oil prices? Understanding both the technology and the geo-politics involved is essential for making high confidence predictions.

Let’s take a look at some of the possible VARIATIONS:

  • Solar energy becomes cheap
  • Oil prices stay low
  • Oil prices go back up
  • Some other form of energy breakthrough

Analyze possible IMPACTS:

  • Energy cost becomes less important in most budgets
  • Our energy use behavior changes over time with low prices
  • The economy grows stronger with low energy prices
  • Reversals in prices make predictions difficult

Select applicable CONTINGENCY PLANS:

  • Surplus Management Plan
  • Expansion Plan
  • Continuity of Growth Plan
  • Process Improvement Plan
  • Budget Transformation Plan

Begin assembling a contingency plan for the CHEAP ENERGY scenario.

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Negative Events versus Positive Events
Preparing for the Singularity
Murphy’s Law – the Positive Side

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